Watching Newsnight yesterday
evening was one of the worst examples of a political post-mortem I think I’ve
ever experienced. The subject was the imminent fall of Aleppo to the Russian
supported government of President Bashar al-Assad that commentators think
represents perhaps not the end of the civil war but the beginning of the end of
the civil war. Aleppo itself may not matter much on Moscow's strategic
chess-board. But the defeat of the rebel opposition there underscores the
extraordinary turn-around in President Assad's fortunes. Before Russia
intervened President Assad was on the ropes, his military power crumbling; now
it looks as if he’ll win. The West’s response…a fiery exchange at the UN,
with US Ambassador Samantha Power accusing Syria and its allies of contributing
to ‘a noose around civilians’ asking ‘Are you truly incapable of shame?’
She is, of course, right. The civil war has been characterised
by a total indifference to the fate of civilians who have been subjected to
unspeakable atrocities, a new barbarism. But the West is also culpable. Since
the invasion of Iraq in 2003—either an unprovoked assault on an independent
country that may have breached international law or something authorised by
United Nation sanction—the West has completely failed to stabilise the region
and arguably has made the situation worse. By removing despicable dictators in
Iraq and then in Libya, initiating regime change and then failing to provide the
mechanism to create a stable future, the West has been guilty of gross
stupidity. The scenario seems to have been…remove dictator, establishing a
western style democratic government, let the liberated people get on with this
and then act surprised when it all falls apart. What this shows…apart from the
hubris of the West…is that you can’t simply transplant democracy to countries
with no real tradition of liberal democratic institutions. The same applies to
the so-called ‘Arab Spring’---I remember commenting on my blog at the time that
the 1848 European revolutions came to mind…things that shone brightly and
briefly and were then snuffed out by the forces of reaction…and so it was. The
West encouraged political aspirations and then expressed surprise when things
did not turn out as they believed they ought. The West’s interference in the
region has largely been disastrous.
As the bombs continue to fall on Aleppo and its people, we sit
well fed in our warm, comfortable houses and wring our hands at the inhumanity
of man. We moralise. We call for the war to end, for the evacuation of
civilians, for the feeding of the people starved for weeks. We give
words…words…words. But we do nothing. In fact, words are all we can give as
the West has effectively abdicated any responsibility it may have felt for
Syria. I am reminded of Sir Humphrey’s words on the principles of foreign
policy…’perhaps there was something we could have done…but it’s too late
now!’
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