In the light of the tragic murder of Jo Cox, today’s recall of
Parliament to pay tribute and the break in the referendum campaign should have
given politicians and the rest of us time to ponder the direction in which we
want our politics to go. Whether her death will have a lasting effect on the
way that we ‘do’ politics is, I suspect, unlikely. MPs will still have close
and personal links with their constituents that will inevitably make them
vulnerable; social media will continue to pile bile on politicians in ways that
are often offensive and threatening; we will continue to hold politicians in
considerable contempt even though the overwhelming majority are good public
servants; and, though the language of debate may be temporarily muffled it will
soon return to its vibrant, confrontational best. It’s easy for us all to say,
after this we must do things better and I’m certain that’s what we believe but
past experience suggests that we soon return to our good or bad old ways.
It will, however, have an impact on the butt-end of the
referendum campaign and I think that is a good thing. The intensive campaign
has lasted for three months with politicians from both sides making their
pitches for your vote on what is billed as an existential question, a
generational response to whether Britain should remain in the EU or not. I do
not use the term ‘member’ as our membership has always been conditional and
tentative…we have never been enthusiastic Europhiles and were we voting on
whether to join or not on Thursday I think there would be a resounding ‘Non’.
Jo’s death has led to a softening in both Remain’s and Leave’s campaigns…both
sides are still fighting for every vote but now making the case with vigour
rather than just using ‘fear’ as their political tool of choice. One thing that
has been thrown up during the campaign is the profound distrust people have for
‘experts’ especially those seeming to support the establishment’s position. In
his debate on BBC last night David Cameron sought to defend ‘experts’ by arguing
that if a mechanic said that your car needed repairs before you went on a long
journey, you would undoubtedly take her advice. Well of course you would
especially if the alternative was being wrapped round the central reservation of
the M25. But this misses the point. The problem is that economists—the group
trusted least I think—have difficulty predicting what will happen to the economy
next week, let alone next month or next year. The IMF had to apologise to the
British government when it got its predictions wrong. You should certainly
listen to employers as they are in the forefront of the economy and know what
they’re talking about…but then you could argue ‘they would say that wouldn’t
they.’
Why, you may wonder, is the result still on a knife-edge? Why
are many people, despite the doom and gloom peddled by Remain, still prepared to
vote for Leave? For many people what is crucial is the question of ‘control’
and taking back control to govern our own country, make our own choices and so
on and, if we don’t like them, have the right to boot out the politicians whose
policies we dislike. For them, these cannot be present as long as we are
members of an undemocratic and unaccountable EU. These are views—whether they
be right or wrong—that Remain has largely failed to dent. As in 1975, the
critical question for them has been the economy though, in a globalised world,
this has less resonance with many people than forty years ago. I have long been
a supporter of the EU—though primarily as an economic institution than a
political one—and remain so but it needs fundamental reform, something that
appears not to be a priority for those in Brussels. The EU has grown too
quickly..nothing we can do about that…and the principles on which it is based
are today less for for purpose that they were in 1957 or 1986. Its tunnel
vision and one-track approach is no longer acceptable to the peoples of Europe.
For me, the costly and completely unnecessary cycle of the European Parliament
between Brussels and Strasbourg epitomises the need for change and the problems
of actually making changes that everyone thinks are needed.
So, with the polls finely poised, my prediction for the result
of the referendum is as follows: Remain will win with 53 per cent of the vote.
Let’s hope I’m right.
